Some things just become so much a part of our lives that we fail to envision anything that is different. Changing these things is difficult if no one is thinking about alternatives. Part of our push to interest students in science should include highlighting things that have become extremely widespread yet are unsustainable and how science must provide an alternative.
The most obvious example of this is fossil fuel use. While there is a multitude of ways we use fossil fuels, and there are many alternatives being developed for many uses, there is one that I hear little about. That is asphalt. For over a hundred years, paving of road surfaces with asphalt (actually a mix of asphalt and "aggregate") has become not only common, but ubiquitous. The fact that asphalt is the most recycled product in the world is counter to, but critical to, the point that I would like to make. It is the repaving of roads and recycling of asphalt that uses a lot of fossil fuel. The process of recycling requires grinding the old failed road surface, loading and hauling the ground asphalt to the processing plant where it must be heated to a high temperature to be recycled, loaded and hauled to its new location, where it must be loaded into a paving machine to be laid, followed by rolling. Road bed preparation and other incidentals add to the energy consumption in the repaving process.
So, what is my point? Well, like most things, this situation is perpetuated by inertia. It is what it is, and if we think of it at all, we think that this is how it always will be. But why? Because no one has thought of a realistic, scalable alternative. Yet. Do you think we will be repaving our roads in the same way, more or less, in two hundred years? Will we have repaved the same roads the same way on a cycle of every 10-20 years (or whatever), time and time again? I hope not. So we should be looking for the next alternative now and until it it developed.
Our children should be inspired to see that science has the potential to change our world. Questioning common realities, and searching for better alternatives should be part of our educational goals. Inspiration from changes that have already been made should bolster that challenge. Asphalt is just one example of a common reality that could be changed. There is no limit to what other seemingly permanent fixtures of our culture that could be changed for the better.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The future real estate crisis
We have been in a "Real Estate Crisis" for a few years now. We have all grown weary of the stories in the news relating to the various aspects of this crisis. Stories of those who were pushed into risky mortgages they could not afford. Stories of those who are "underwater" on their mortgages. Stories of those who have lost their homes to foreclosure. And stories of neighborhoods where there are lots of empty houses bringing the values of everyone else's houses down.
These are all gloomy realities. And there are more gloomy realities. The rise in the average square footage of American homes during decades where the average family size was falling and real middle class wages were stagnant at best, along with the rising bubble of real estate values, and the extraction of that value to fund an unrealistic rise in personal and family lifestyle set up the Real Estate Crisis. The gloomy reality is that the higher you go the farther you have to fall. And that fall, as we have seen by the bursting of the real estate bubble, has put us so low that recovery has been nearly non-existent.
There has been a push by some to forgive some of the debt by changing the terms of the mortgages, revaluating the properties, or otherwise making it possible for those who are at risk of losing their homes to keep them. There are many reasons that this would be a good thing for not only the home owners, but for the overall economy. That said, I can not help but see the bigger picture and that picture has a problem that will be with us for a longer time than the current crisis.
Owning your own home has been seen as part of the American Dream. Home ownership has its responsibilities. Paying the mortgage is only one of them. Paying taxes and insurance are also a necessity. But the problem I see, that does not get talked about in the stories of the Real Estate Crisis, is that of home maintenance.
Maintaining a house and property costs money. As anyone who has owned a home knows, there always seems to be something that needs to be maintained, fixed, or replaced. This could be something like a water heater, furnace, flooring, roof, plumbing, paint, you name it. Some of these things must be done when they need to be done. If your water heater breaks down, you will fix or replace it as needed. But some other things, and these are the things that I believe will build into the next crisis, are less urgent and thus can and will be delayed beyond prudence, and will not only end up costing more in the long run (think failure to replace a roof that badly needs replacing and having damaging leaks) but will create a system-wide real estate quality degradation that given our difficult financial times will become a new, possibly worse, Real Estate Crisis.
These are all gloomy realities. And there are more gloomy realities. The rise in the average square footage of American homes during decades where the average family size was falling and real middle class wages were stagnant at best, along with the rising bubble of real estate values, and the extraction of that value to fund an unrealistic rise in personal and family lifestyle set up the Real Estate Crisis. The gloomy reality is that the higher you go the farther you have to fall. And that fall, as we have seen by the bursting of the real estate bubble, has put us so low that recovery has been nearly non-existent.
There has been a push by some to forgive some of the debt by changing the terms of the mortgages, revaluating the properties, or otherwise making it possible for those who are at risk of losing their homes to keep them. There are many reasons that this would be a good thing for not only the home owners, but for the overall economy. That said, I can not help but see the bigger picture and that picture has a problem that will be with us for a longer time than the current crisis.
Owning your own home has been seen as part of the American Dream. Home ownership has its responsibilities. Paying the mortgage is only one of them. Paying taxes and insurance are also a necessity. But the problem I see, that does not get talked about in the stories of the Real Estate Crisis, is that of home maintenance.
Maintaining a house and property costs money. As anyone who has owned a home knows, there always seems to be something that needs to be maintained, fixed, or replaced. This could be something like a water heater, furnace, flooring, roof, plumbing, paint, you name it. Some of these things must be done when they need to be done. If your water heater breaks down, you will fix or replace it as needed. But some other things, and these are the things that I believe will build into the next crisis, are less urgent and thus can and will be delayed beyond prudence, and will not only end up costing more in the long run (think failure to replace a roof that badly needs replacing and having damaging leaks) but will create a system-wide real estate quality degradation that given our difficult financial times will become a new, possibly worse, Real Estate Crisis.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Keeping the dream of solar alive
I have a dream of going "solar". And in this case I am referring to photovoltaic electricity producing cells. There are a lot of obstacles stopping this from happening. Cost and available sunlight are the two greatest challenges. We have a limited income, and we live in the woods, in the northern tier of the United States. While tropical areas have the best solar potential, Germany has proven that significant solar capability lies in northern latitudes. This, however, assumes good exposure. We are nestled in the New Hampshire forest. Oaks and pines crown over our little house and barn to a height of 80 feet and more, with an understory of birch, maple, and beech. We love being in the woods but are considering removing over a dozen large trees which represents a significant cost in of itself. As a side benefit, our garden could definitely use the extra sunshine.
Having wanted to do this for years, I have tried to keep some awareness of what is happening in the industry and of any available incentives that could make it easier to achieve. This in order to keep from missing any window of opportunity that may open, or slam shut. The news seems to have been that costs continue to fall as the technology improves. The newer CIGS (copper indium gallium diselenide [Cu(InxGa1-x)Se2] ) cells have a lot of promise, but the recently ramped up production of silicon for the older standard panels favored by Chinese manufacturers have brought costs so low that CIGS technology is having a hard time competing.
The older technology being produced in China has had the benefit of lowering costs to the extent that the price point has allowed for a large increase in solar deployment, though as a percentage of electricity production solar remains quite small.
In my case, the increased efficiency of the more expensive CIGS technology would be beneficial in my less than optimal solar exposure. The solar industry is in a difficult position to assess going forward. It will continue to grow, but what the dominant technology will be and which players will succeed remains unknown.
As I continue to work toward the time I can afford to take the leap, I keep the dream of solar alive for myself and millions of others. The world depends on it.
Having wanted to do this for years, I have tried to keep some awareness of what is happening in the industry and of any available incentives that could make it easier to achieve. This in order to keep from missing any window of opportunity that may open, or slam shut. The news seems to have been that costs continue to fall as the technology improves. The newer CIGS (copper indium gallium diselenide [Cu(InxGa1-x)Se2] ) cells have a lot of promise, but the recently ramped up production of silicon for the older standard panels favored by Chinese manufacturers have brought costs so low that CIGS technology is having a hard time competing.
The older technology being produced in China has had the benefit of lowering costs to the extent that the price point has allowed for a large increase in solar deployment, though as a percentage of electricity production solar remains quite small.
In my case, the increased efficiency of the more expensive CIGS technology would be beneficial in my less than optimal solar exposure. The solar industry is in a difficult position to assess going forward. It will continue to grow, but what the dominant technology will be and which players will succeed remains unknown.
As I continue to work toward the time I can afford to take the leap, I keep the dream of solar alive for myself and millions of others. The world depends on it.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Capitalism wins!
Yes, capitalism wins. And with capitalism it is "winner takes all".
That is the problem. With unregulated capitalism the winners take all and the losers lose. The success of capitalism and the propensity of deregulation have resulted in our current condition of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
The biggest problem we have with the "entitlement state" is the feeling of entitlement that the wealthy have toward their wealth, and that they feel entitled to have that wealth grow at unrealistic levels regardless of the drain it has on the overall economy.
The wealthy scorn any suggestion that tax policy include the "redistribution of wealth" to return some of that money back into the system to the benefit of the middle and lower classes. The reality is that they welcome their own participation in the "redistribution of wealth" in their own direction by using the power of their wealth to concentrate that wealth toward themselves in the highest wealth class.
I believe that not only do we need to regulate capitalism to balance the power of corporations and the top tier of the wealthy, but we need to include a strongly progressive tax structure that taxes extreme income at the historical high rates that have been successful in the past. But, while doing so, we must also tax the middle class in a way that helps dig us out of the fiscal pit we have collectively dug ourselves. This will slow the "recovery" of our economy, but that slow recovery will be one that adapts to lower spending by both government and families, which will be a more stable and sustainable economy. And that is the bitter pill we really need to take. The delusion of being able to return to policies that got us here in the first place must be exposed for the folly that it is.
That is the problem. With unregulated capitalism the winners take all and the losers lose. The success of capitalism and the propensity of deregulation have resulted in our current condition of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
The biggest problem we have with the "entitlement state" is the feeling of entitlement that the wealthy have toward their wealth, and that they feel entitled to have that wealth grow at unrealistic levels regardless of the drain it has on the overall economy.
The wealthy scorn any suggestion that tax policy include the "redistribution of wealth" to return some of that money back into the system to the benefit of the middle and lower classes. The reality is that they welcome their own participation in the "redistribution of wealth" in their own direction by using the power of their wealth to concentrate that wealth toward themselves in the highest wealth class.
I believe that not only do we need to regulate capitalism to balance the power of corporations and the top tier of the wealthy, but we need to include a strongly progressive tax structure that taxes extreme income at the historical high rates that have been successful in the past. But, while doing so, we must also tax the middle class in a way that helps dig us out of the fiscal pit we have collectively dug ourselves. This will slow the "recovery" of our economy, but that slow recovery will be one that adapts to lower spending by both government and families, which will be a more stable and sustainable economy. And that is the bitter pill we really need to take. The delusion of being able to return to policies that got us here in the first place must be exposed for the folly that it is.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
The American Dream has become just a pipe dream
The American Dream is a residual fantasy that we hold on to though it is now unobtainable by the majority of Americans.
The American Dream is defined in a number of ways. Generally it involves the potential for upward mobility, prosperity, and the concept that each generation will live better than the generation before them.
There has been a silent assault on the American Dream over recent decades. Capitalism combined with inadequate, ill advised, or non-existent regulation and greed have focused economic power in the hands of the few. Excessive consumption, by individuals, families, and governments have brought expectations of prosperity and wealth to unsustainable levels, at the cost of burdensome debt.
When an individual or a family overspends and finds itself in excessive debt, it must change its ways. It must earn more if it can, spend less, and pay down its debts. This is made more difficult by the extra burden of the interest accruing on that debt, making the amount it will have to pay back grow over time. Paying down this debt results in a period of decreasing prosperity, and a lower standard of living. That period can be quite long if the debt load is large.
Quite similarly, governments can find themselves in excessive debt, and must change their ways. They must bring in more money if they can, spend less, and pay down its debts. Interest payments provide a onerous burden to governments as well.
When, in the collective, a society lives beyond its means, and both the citizenry and their government have accrued large amounts of debt, prosperity declines and the "American Dream" is destined to fail. As one generation has lived beyond its means, it has raised the bar of perceived prosperity to an unrealistic height. The next generation not only finds that bar too high to attain for themselves, but is also saddled with the burdens of the previous generation.
This reality means that for now the American Dream has become just a pipe dream. Any attempts to deny this truth and make policy to perpetuate the delusion will only make it worse and last longer.
The American Dream is defined in a number of ways. Generally it involves the potential for upward mobility, prosperity, and the concept that each generation will live better than the generation before them.
There has been a silent assault on the American Dream over recent decades. Capitalism combined with inadequate, ill advised, or non-existent regulation and greed have focused economic power in the hands of the few. Excessive consumption, by individuals, families, and governments have brought expectations of prosperity and wealth to unsustainable levels, at the cost of burdensome debt.
When an individual or a family overspends and finds itself in excessive debt, it must change its ways. It must earn more if it can, spend less, and pay down its debts. This is made more difficult by the extra burden of the interest accruing on that debt, making the amount it will have to pay back grow over time. Paying down this debt results in a period of decreasing prosperity, and a lower standard of living. That period can be quite long if the debt load is large.
Quite similarly, governments can find themselves in excessive debt, and must change their ways. They must bring in more money if they can, spend less, and pay down its debts. Interest payments provide a onerous burden to governments as well.
When, in the collective, a society lives beyond its means, and both the citizenry and their government have accrued large amounts of debt, prosperity declines and the "American Dream" is destined to fail. As one generation has lived beyond its means, it has raised the bar of perceived prosperity to an unrealistic height. The next generation not only finds that bar too high to attain for themselves, but is also saddled with the burdens of the previous generation.
This reality means that for now the American Dream has become just a pipe dream. Any attempts to deny this truth and make policy to perpetuate the delusion will only make it worse and last longer.
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